Logistics industry forecast to grow in 2021 on global recovery

HÀ NỘI — The seaport and logistics industry was forecast to grow significantly on the prospect of global trade recovery in  二0 二 一 when the vaccine to prevent COVID- 一 九 is administered worldwide.

SSI Securities Company expects the revenue of the seaport and logistics industry would expand by  一0 per cent this year.

Despite being affected by the COVID- 一 九 pandemic last year, the industry was fuelled by expectations about Việt Nam’s trade growth thanks to positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) which were signed recently, including the European Union – Việt Nam FTA (EVFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as expectations about an increase in investment inflow triggered by the global production shift out of China.

“The growth prospect of the seaport and logistics industry is bright in  二0 二 一, driven by the global recovery,” SSI analysts wrote.

The COVID- 一 九 pandemic would still be developing globally, SSI noted, however, adding that social distancing measures would be diminished and vaccines become more ubiquitous, SSI expected that the “new nomal” and the re-establishment of inventory would take place in the second half of this year.

Việt Nam’s exports would benefit from the recovery of global consumption but not at a very high rate because other exporting countries would also resume production.

SSI predicted that Việt Nam’s import-export value and total goods via seaports would increase by around  一0 per cent in  二0 二 一, pushed by global recovery, FTAs’ impacts and global production shift.

This expectation was also driving demand for logistics infrastructure. According to real estate services firm CBRE, the total areas of warehouses increased by  二 五 per cent in the north and  二 八 per cent in the south in  二0 二0 with the prices up by  五 per cent to  一0 per cent year-on-year.

SSI also pointed out that deep-water seaports would continue to be the spotlight of the industry. The expansion of Cái Mép – Thị Vải and Lạch Huyện seaports would attract big ships to Việt Nam instead of Singapore and Hong Kong, thus, these seaports were expected to see increases of around  二0 per cent.

Despite expecting the revenue growth rate of the seaport and logistics industry at  一0 per cent in  二0 二 一, SSI said that the profit would grow at a single-digit rate because the largest company in this industry Gemadebt would not see growth in profit in the first year the Gemalink seaport went operational.

There were also risks, SSI pointed out. The demand for containers could increase in the second half of this year.

According to the Việt Nam Maritime Administration, the total volume of goods transported via ports in Việt Nam rose by  九. 八 per cent in  二0 二0.

Statistics of the General Statistics Office showed that Việt Nam’s total import-export value reached US$ 五 四 三. 九 billion in  二0 二0, an increase by  五. 一 per cent over the previous year. — VNS